Unyaka ka-2025 kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngobalulekile emkhakheni wamandla nezinsizakusebenza zemvelo emhlabeni jikelele. Ingxabano eqhubekayo phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, ukumiswa kwesivumelwano eGaza, kanye nengqungquthela ezayo ye-COP30 eBrazil - ezoba yinto ebalulekile kwinqubomgomo yesimo sezulu - konke kwakha isimo esingaqinisekile. Okwamanje, ukuqala kwesikhathi sesibili sikaTrump, ngezinyathelo zokuqala zempi kanye nentela yokuhweba, kungeze izingqimba ezintsha zokungezwani kwezepolitiki.
Phakathi kwalesi simo esiyinkimbinkimbi, izinkampani zamandla zibhekene nezinqumo ezinzima mayelana nokwabiwa kwemali kuzo zonke izinhlobo zamafutha kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okusebenzisa i-carbon ephansi. Ngemva komsebenzi we-M&A ophula irekhodi ezinyangeni ezingu-18 ezedlule, ukuhlanganiswa phakathi kwezinkampani ezinkulu zikawoyela kusalokhu kuqinile futhi kungasakazekela ezimayini maduze nje. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isikhungo sedatha kanye nokukhula kwe-AI kuqhuba isidingo esiphuthumayo sikagesi ohlanzekile ubusuku nemini, okudinga ukwesekwa okuqinile kwenqubomgomo.
Nazi izindlela ezinhlanu ezibalulekile ezizokwakha umkhakha wamandla ngo-2025:
1. I-Geopolitics kanye Nezinqubomgomo Zokuhweba Ezishintsha Izimakethe
Izinhlelo ezintsha zentela zikaTrump zibeka usongo olukhulu ekukhuleni komhlaba, okungenzeka zinciphise amaphuzu angama-50 ekukhuleni kwe-GDP futhi zehlise cishe ku-3%. Lokhu kunganciphisa isidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke ngamabhareli angu-500,000 ngosuku - cishe ukukhula konyaka. Okwamanje, ukuhoxa kwe-US esivumelwaneni saseParis kushiya amathuba amancane amazwe okuphakamisa imigomo yawo ye-NDC ngaphambi kwe-COP30 ukuze abuyele endleleni yokufinyelela ku-2°C. Ngisho noma uTrump ebeka ukuthula kwe-Ukraine neMpumalanga Ephakathi phezulu ohlelweni, noma yisiphi isinqumo singase sinyuse ukuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla futhi sinciphise amanani.
2. Ukukhula Kotshalomali, Kodwa Ngejubane Elihamba Kancane
Ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele kwamandla nezinsiza zemvelo kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ama-USD ayizigidigidi eziyi-1.5 ngo-2025, kukhuphuke ngo-6% kusukela ngo-2024 - irekhodi elisha, kodwa nokukhula kwehla kwaba yisigamu sejubane elibonwe ekuqaleni kwale minyaka eyishumi. Izinkampani ziqaphela kakhulu, zibonisa ukungaqiniseki ngesivinini sokushintsha kwamandla. Ukutshalwa kwezimali okune-carbon ephansi kukhuphuke kwaya ku-50% wezindleko zamandla zizonke ngo-2021 kodwa selokhu kwanda. Ukufeza imigomo yaseParis kuzodinga ukwanda okwengeziwe ngo-60% kutshalomali olunjalo ngo-2030.
3. Ishadi Lempendulo Yabo Kuma-Oyili AseYurophu
Njengoba izinkampani ezinkulu zikawoyela zase-US zisebenzisa amasheya aqinile ukuthola izinkampani ezizimele zasekhaya, wonke amehlo abheke iShell, iBP kanye ne-Equinor. Okubaluleke kakhulu kubo njengamanje ukuqina kwezezimali - ukwenza ngcono amaphothifoliyo ngokushintsha izimpahla ezingezona eziyinhloko, ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwezindleko, kanye nokukhulisa ukuhamba kwemali kwamahhala ukusekela ukubuyiselwa kwabanikazi bamasheya. Noma kunjalo, amanani kawoyela negesi abuthakathaka angabangela isivumelwano esishintshayo yizinkampani ezinkulu zaseYurophu kamuva ngo-2025.
4. Amafutha, igesi kanye nezinsimbi ezibekelwe amanani aguquguqukayo
I-OPEC+ ibhekene nomunye unyaka onzima wokuzama ukugcina i-Brent ingaphezu kwe-USD 80/bbl unyaka wesine ulandelana. Njengoba kunokunikezwa okuqinile okungeyona i-OPEC, silindele ukuthi i-Brent ibe nesilinganiso se-USD 70-75/bbl ngo-2025. Izimakethe zegesi zingaqina kakhulu ngaphambi kokuba kufike umthamo omusha we-LNG ngo-2026, okwenza amanani abe phezulu futhi aguquguquke kakhulu. Amanani ethusi aqale ngo-2025 ku-USD 4.15/lb, ehle kusukela eziqongweni zika-2024, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi abuyele esilinganisweni se-USD 4.50/lb ngenxa yesidingo esinamandla sase-US naseShayina esidlula ukunikezwa kwezimayini ezintsha.
5. Amandla Nokuvuselelwa: Unyaka Wokusheshisa Ukuqamba Izinto Ezintsha
Ukuvumela kancane kanye nokuxhumana kancane kuye kwanciphisa ukukhula kwamandla avuselelekayo isikhathi eside. Izimpawu ziyavela zokuthi u-2025 ungase uphawule uguquko. Izinguquko zaseJalimane ziphakamise ukuvunyelwa komoya ogwini ngo-150% kusukela ngo-2022, kuyilapho izinguquko zase-US FERC ziqala ukufinyeza isikhathi sokuxhumana - kanti amanye ama-ISO aqala ukwenza okuzenzakalelayo ukunciphisa izifundo kusukela eminyakeni kuya ezinyangeni. Ukwandiswa okusheshayo kwesikhungo sedatha nakho kusunduza ohulumeni, ikakhulukazi e-US, ukuba babeke phambili ukuhlinzekwa kukagesi. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kungaqinisa izimakethe zegesi futhi kunyuse amanani kagesi, kube yindawo yezepolitiki efana namanani kaphethiloli ngaphambi kokhetho lwangonyaka odlule.
Njengoba isimo siqhubeka nokuguquka, abadlali bamandla kuzodingeka badlule kula mathuba nezingozi ngokushesha ukuze bavikele ikusasa labo kule nkathi ecacile.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Julayi-04-2025
